My KX3 shipping calculation

[dr.diesel]

Ok, this is kinda a joke, but with no info coming from Elecraft (and being asked, not to ask) I have nothing else to go with.

Facts:

The first KX3 shipped on March 29th
Orders started Dec 27th
Currently orders from Dec 29th are shipping, we'll assume all orders from the 29th have shipped.

This ratio is for every 2 days of orders takes 2.5 Months to process, or 1.25 months per day.

Since I ordered my KX3 on Jan 9th, it should arrive somewhere around August 2013.  Plenty of time for me to rethink and pre-order a K4 at Dayton next year!

[W7GJ, Lance]

I sure hope you are wrong, because I ordered mine on Jan 11, 2012 and I am leaving
with it (hopefully) on a 6m EME DXpedition to ZK2 at the end of August!   Let's both
keep our fingers crossed!   Been into the 7th month of waiting now.... VY 73, Lance

On 6/22/2012 10:30 PM, dr.diesel [via Elecraft] wrote:

> Ok, this is kinda a joke, but with no info coming from Elecraft (and being asked,
> not to ask) I have nothing else to go with.
>
> Facts:
>
> The first KX3 shipped on March 29th
> Orders started Dec 27th
> Currently orders from Dec 29th are shipping, we'll assume all orders from the 29th
> have shipped.
>
> This ratio is for every 2 days of orders takes 2.5 Months to process, or 1.25
> months per day.
>
> Since I ordered my KX3 on Jan 9th, it should arrive somewhere around August 2013.
>  Plenty of time for me to rethink and pre-order a K4 at Dayton next year!
>
>
>
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> If you reply to this email, your message will be added to the discussion below:
> http://elecraft.365791.n2.nabble.com/My-KX3-shipping-calculation-tp7557972.html
> To start a new topic under Elecraft, email [hidden email]
> To unsubscribe from Elecraft, click here
> <
> NAML
> <http://elecraft.365791.n2.nabble.com/template/NamlServlet.jtp?macro=macro_viewer&id=instant_html%21nabble%3Aemail.naml&base=nabble.naml.namespaces.BasicNamespace-nabble.view.web.template.NabbleNamespace-nabble.view.web.template.NodeNamespace&breadcrumbs=notify_subscribers%21nabble%3Aemail.naml-instant_emails%21nabble%3Aemail.naml-send_instant_email%21nabble%3Aemail.naml>
>

--
Lance Collister, W7GJ
(ex WA3GPL, WA1JXN, WA1JXN/C6A, ZF2OC/ZF8, E51SIX, 3D2LR, 5W0GJ)
P.O. Box 73
Frenchtown, MT   59834-0073
USA
TEL: [phone]
QTH: DN27ub
URL: http://www.bigskyspaces.com/w7gj
Windows Messenger: [hidden email]
Skype: lanceW7GJ
2m DXCC #11/6m DXCC #815

Interested in 6m EME?  Ask me about subscribing to the Magic Band EME
email group, or just fill in the request box at the bottom of my web
page (above)!

[dr.diesel]

W7GJ, Lance wrote

I sure hope you are wrong, because I ordered mine on Jan 11, 2012 and I am leaving
with it (hopefully) on a 6m EME DXpedition to ZK2 at the end of August!   Let's both
keep our fingers crossed!   Been into the 7th month of waiting now.... VY 73, Lance

I was planning to take mine to Dayton, then to demonstrate during Webelos Camp this past weekend.  In another month I will have missed all of the 2012 camping events..

[W7GJ, Lance]

On 6/22/2012 11:38 PM, dr.diesel [via Elecraft] wrote:

>
>     W7GJ, Lance wrote
>     I sure hope you are wrong, because I ordered mine on Jan 11, 2012 and I am leaving
>     with it (hopefully) on a 6m EME DXpedition to ZK2 at the end of August!   Let's
>     both
>     keep our fingers crossed!   Been into the 7th month of waiting now.... VY 73,
>     Lance
>
> I was planning to take mine to Dayton, then to demonstrate during Webelos Camp this
> past weekend.  In another month I will have missed all of the 2012 camping events..
>
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> If you reply to this email, your message will be added to the discussion below:
> http://elecraft.365791.n2.nabble.com/My-KX3-shipping-calculation-tp7557972p7557987.html 
>
> To start a new topic under Elecraft, email [hidden email]
> To unsubscribe from Elecraft, click here
> <
> NAML
> <http://elecraft.365791.n2.nabble.com/template/NamlServlet.jtp?macro=macro_viewer&id=instant_html%21nabble%3Aemail.naml&base=nabble.naml.namespaces.BasicNamespace-nabble.view.web.template.NabbleNamespace-nabble.view.web.template.NodeNamespace&breadcrumbs=notify_subscribers%21nabble%3Aemail.naml-instant_emails%21nabble%3Aemail.naml-send_instant_email%21nabble%3Aemail.naml>
>

I sure hope the production rate is picking up!  GL and VY 73, Lance

--
Lance Collister, W7GJ
(ex WA3GPL, WA1JXN, WA1JXN/C6A, ZF2OC/ZF8, E51SIX, 3D2LR, 5W0GJ)
P.O. Box 73
Frenchtown, MT   59834-0073
USA
TEL: [phone]
QTH: DN27ub
URL: http://www.bigskyspaces.com/w7gj
Windows Messenger: [hidden email]
Skype: lanceW7GJ
2m DXCC #11/6m DXCC #815

Interested in 6m EME?  Ask me about subscribing to the Magic Band EME
email group, or just fill in the request box at the bottom of my web
page (above)!

[Don Wilhelm-4]

I hope it is a joke!  IMHO. it conveys the wrong message.

Did you ever hear of "ramp-up"?  Consider the following scenerio for the
early days of shipping (even if the numbers are wrong).

One unit was shipped the first day, none the 2nd day because the second
unit took 1.5 days, 4th day, another unit was shipped.  5th day one was
shipped and another was half ready, so the 4th one shipped on the 6th
day.  OK, the average so far is 2/3 of a unit per day.
Continue the same exercise, but project for a month, and they are now
shipping 5 units per day - plus, part of that "ramp-up" time was
training new people, so by the time the new people were fully on board,
there is a capability of 9 units per day after 2 months (the actual
number from the TJ spreadheet is 9.9 units per day based on a 7 day week
- or about 14 per day based on a 5 day week.

It is not fair to average the first 2 months of shipping and attempt to
project that average over the lifetime of the product.

Serial numbers count more than the averages given - in the first month,
  the average was 44.1 units per week, while in June, the average is
69.3 units per week.  Does that sound like an average over the entire
period would be accurate?  I think the answer is clearly NO!

To date, there have been 498 known deliveries, and more to come soon,
and the ship rate seems to be about 14 per day (5 day week), and
Elecraft is projecting a 90 to 120 day delivery for current orders
figures out to compute to 1400  pending orders right now (using the
average time of 100 days to delivery) -- and that is making the
assumption that the rate of 14 per day (in a 5 day week) will not
increase.  The first 2 days of ordering yielded about 500 orders - that
is phenomenal an average of 250 per day!

So bottom line -- if you have placed your order earlier, you will have
less than 90 days to wait, and if you place your order now, you will
receive delivery in 120 days or less.  Elecraft will not mislead you -
the time of uncertainty about any problems along with the early training
of line personnel has gone by and good projections can be made.

73,
Don W3FPR

On 6/22/2012 6:30 PM, dr.diesel wrote:

> Ok, this is kinda a joke, but with no info coming from Elecraft (and being
> asked, not to ask) I have nothing else to go with.
>
> Facts:
>
> The first KX3 shipped on March 29th
> Orders started Dec 27th
> Currently orders from Dec 29th are shipping, we'll assume all orders from
> the 29th have shipped.
>
> This ratio is for every 2 days of orders takes 2.5 Months to process, or
> 1.25 months per day.
>
> Since I ordered my KX3 on Jan 9th, it should arrive somewhere around August
> 2013.  Plenty of time for me to rethink and pre-order a K4 at Dayton next
> year!
>
>
>
> --
> View this message in context: http://elecraft.365791.n2.nabble.com/My-KX3-shipping-calculation-tp7557972.html
> Sent from the Elecraft mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
> ______________________________________________________________
> Elecraft mailing list
> Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft
> Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
> Post: mailto:[hidden email]
>
> This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net
> Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html
>

______________________________________________________________
Elecraft mailing list
Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft
Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
Post: mailto:[hidden email]

This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net
Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html

[Joe K2UF]

After reading all the 'facts' about production line 'ramp up' and estimated
daily production counts I have concluded that the same logic will apply to
my order for my new KAT500.  

I am confident that the actual delivery will be the day Mr. Brown drops it
off at my front door.  Plus or minus several hours of course.

73  Joe K2UF

No trees were harmed in the sending of this e-mail; however, many electrons
were inconvenienced.


-----Original Message-----
From: [hidden email]
[mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Don Wilhelm
Sent: Friday, June 22, 2012 9:16 PM
To: 'Elecraft'
Subject: Re: [Elecraft] My KX3 shipping calculation

I hope it is a joke!  IMHO. it conveys the wrong message.

Did you ever hear of "ramp-up"?  Consider the following scenerio for the
early days of shipping (even if the numbers are wrong).

One unit was shipped the first day, none the 2nd day because the second
unit took 1.5 days, 4th day, another unit was shipped.  5th day one was
shipped and another was half ready, so the 4th one shipped on the 6th
day.  OK, the average so far is 2/3 of a unit per day.
Continue the same exercise, but project for a month, and they are now
shipping 5 units per day - plus, part of that "ramp-up" time was
training new people, so by the time the new people were fully on board,
there is a capability of 9 units per day after 2 months (the actual
number from the TJ spreadheet is 9.9 units per day based on a 7 day week
- or about 14 per day based on a 5 day week.

It is not fair to average the first 2 months of shipping and attempt to
project that average over the lifetime of the product.

Serial numbers count more than the averages given - in the first month,
  the average was 44.1 units per week, while in June, the average is
69.3 units per week.  Does that sound like an average over the entire
period would be accurate?  I think the answer is clearly NO!

To date, there have been 498 known deliveries, and more to come soon,
and the ship rate seems to be about 14 per day (5 day week), and
Elecraft is projecting a 90 to 120 day delivery for current orders
figures out to compute to 1400  pending orders right now (using the
average time of 100 days to delivery) -- and that is making the
assumption that the rate of 14 per day (in a 5 day week) will not
increase.  The first 2 days of ordering yielded about 500 orders - that
is phenomenal an average of 250 per day!

So bottom line -- if you have placed your order earlier, you will have
less than 90 days to wait, and if you place your order now, you will
receive delivery in 120 days or less.  Elecraft will not mislead you -
the time of uncertainty about any problems along with the early training
of line personnel has gone by and good projections can be made.

73,
Don W3FPR

On 6/22/2012 6:30 PM, dr.diesel wrote:

> Ok, this is kinda a joke, but with no info coming from Elecraft (and being
> asked, not to ask) I have nothing else to go with.
>
> Facts:
>
> The first KX3 shipped on March 29th
> Orders started Dec 27th
> Currently orders from Dec 29th are shipping, we'll assume all orders from
> the 29th have shipped.
>
> This ratio is for every 2 days of orders takes 2.5 Months to process, or
> 1.25 months per day.
>
> Since I ordered my KX3 on Jan 9th, it should arrive somewhere around

August
> 2013.  Plenty of time for me to rethink and pre-order a K4 at Dayton next
> year!
>
>
>
> --
> View this message in context:
http://elecraft.365791.n2.nabble.com/My-KX3-shipping-calculation-tp7557972.h
tml

> Sent from the Elecraft mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
> ______________________________________________________________
> Elecraft mailing list
> Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft
> Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
> Post: mailto:[hidden email]
>
> This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net
> Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html
>

______________________________________________________________
Elecraft mailing list
Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft
Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
Post: mailto:[hidden email]

This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net
Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html

______________________________________________________________
Elecraft mailing list
Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft
Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
Post: mailto:[hidden email]

This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net
Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html

[Don Wilhelm-4]

Joe,

I would believe (based only on guess, and no prior knowledge) that the
number of orders for the KAT500 are much smaller than for the KX3.  
While the KX3 "natives are restless", I would think that once the KAT500
starts shipping, the projections will be much tighter than for the KX3 -
just due to the relative volume of pending orders.

The KAT500 does not have a "tracking spreadsheet" on a Yahoo Groups
forum, so I have no data regarding time of the orders and ship
conformation emails and delivery times.  That spreadsheet has given me
the basis for the numbers I used -- the internal Elecraft information
may be different.

73,
Don W3FPR

On 6/22/2012 9:45 PM, Joe K2UF wrote:
> After reading all the 'facts' about production line 'ramp up' and estimated
> daily production counts I have concluded that the same logic will apply to
> my order for my new KAT500.
>
> I am confident that the actual delivery will be the day Mr. Brown drops it
> off at my front door.  Plus or minus several hours of course.
>
> 73  Joe K2UF
>

______________________________________________________________
Elecraft mailing list
Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft
Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
Post: mailto:[hidden email]

This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net
Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html

[dr.diesel]

Don Wilhelm-4 wrote

I hope it is a joke!  IMHO. it conveys the wrong message.

Like I said in the original post, is it kinda a joke.  The only message I'm sending is there is a lack of communication, I'm not bashing or anything of the sort.

Elecraft has not posted any shipping numbers, ramp rate or order quantities etc.  I have absolutely nothing to base any number or date on except for what I put in the first post.  Being that is the only information, that is what must be used for any guess!

Now it is probably safe to assume there were a huge number of orders the first few days.  But it is also safe to assume that like me, many people were on vacation and not spending a bunch of time on the computer with family around during Xmas.  I ordered my unit the second I was aware they were available for pre-order.

I'm quite sure Elecraft could quickly put together a timeline of some sort, anything would be better than we have now.  Or, they can send me back order stack, the current production rate, and I'll do it for them!

73

[Andrew Moore-3]

I'm grateful they provide what they do provide in terms of posting some
numbers and estimates that other companies wouldn't even think of sharing.

While I can't speak for Elecraft, there are likely lots of inputs behind
the scenes that affect production, and posting the numbers may set
expectations that can't be met as things change. I bet they're producing
KX3s as fast as their capabilities allow and that their priorities are in
the right places.

--Andrew, NV1B
..

On Sat, Jun 23, 2012 at 8:13 AM, dr.diesel <[hidden email]> wrote:

>
> Don Wilhelm-4 wrote
> >
> > I hope it is a joke!  IMHO. it conveys the wrong message.
> >
> >
>
> Like I said in the original post, is it kinda a joke.  The only message I'm
> sending is there is a lack of communication, I'm not bashing or anything of
> the sort.
>
> Elecraft has not posted any shipping numbers, ramp rate or order quantities
> etc.  I have absolutely nothing to base any number or date on except for
> what I put in the first post.

______________________________________________________________
Elecraft mailing list
Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft
Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
Post: mailto:[hidden email]

This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net
Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html

[dr.diesel]

Andrew Moore-3 wrote

I'm grateful they provide what they do provide in terms of posting some
numbers and estimates that other companies wouldn't even think of sharing.

While I can't speak for Elecraft, there are likely lots of inputs behind
the scenes that affect production, and posting the numbers may set
expectations that can't be met as things change. I bet they're producing
KX3s as fast as their capabilities allow and that their priorities are in
the right places.

--Andrew, NV1B

I don't disagree, but something is better than nothing.  Right now I don't know if it will arrive tomorrow, or Aug 2013.