OT - Solar activity article

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OT - Solar activity article

Randy Cook
A short, but interesting article on solar activity in 'The Economist' magazine's website - article number 18833483, titled 'Sun Down'.  

Researchers believe we are heading for an extended solar minimum is the bad news. I do not know enough about the subject to have an opinion, but the article is well written.

73s

Randy K6CRC
K3#2051
[hidden email]




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Re: OT - Solar activity article

Nate Bargmann
* On 2011 16 Jun 11:42 -0500, Randy Cook wrote:
> A short, but interesting article on solar activity in 'The Economist' magazine's website - article number 18833483, titled 'Sun Down'.  
>
> Researchers believe we are heading for an extended solar minimum is the bad news. I do not know enough about the subject to have an opinion, but the article is well written.

If it's so, then we're in for a long period of time where DX will be
found on the lower bands with infrequent, if any, openings beyond Es on
10m.  Reliable DX will require large arrays on 15 and 20m and power.
The days of working the world on a coat hanger on 10m and F2 openings on
6m will be the subject of amateur radio lore for a couple of
generations.  For those who can manage the arrays, 80 and 160m will
offer fabulous DX opportunities during the winter months.  With an SFI
around 64 to 67, 80, and to a lesser extent 160m, will go "long" shortly
after dusk and will not be the reliable NVIS bands we expect them to be.
How do I know this?  Anyone on HF from late 2007 through 2009 has
already experienced it.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, just realistic.  A minimum will have
short spurts of solar activity most likely, they will just be weak and
shortlived.  If anything, propagation will become quite predictable.
;-)

73, de Nate, N0NB >>

--

"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all
possible worlds.  The pessimist fears this is true."

Ham radio, Linux, bikes, and more: http://www.n0nb.us
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Re: OT - Solar activity article

Arie Kleingeld PA3A-2
No article, no discussion on any reflector will bring any change in this
solar cycle.

I'll just see what happens and accept all propagation, good or bad.


73
Arie PA3A

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Re: OT - Solar activity article

Guy, K2AV
In reply to this post by Nate Bargmann
No more "hard sky" like 1956 in my lifetime if that actually plays
out.  In 1956 watched my friend's ham dad work the west coast from
Ohio, on 10 meters AM, 5+9 both ways,  with a Johnson Ranger 35 watts
AM literally into a wet salty spaghetti noodle.  REALLY impressive and
fun to a seventh grader that eventually turned into K2AV.  We also did
window screens, bed frames.  11 meters was an infrequently used ham
band.

Been waiting for a 1956 repeat on the propagation.  If we got that,
KX3 and a wet noodle about all one would need.  Sigh.

73, Guy

On Thu, Jun 16, 2011 at 1:51 PM, Nate Bargmann <[hidden email]> wrote:
> * On 2011 16 Jun 11:42 -0500, Randy Cook wrote:
>> A short, but interesting article on solar activity in 'The Economist' magazine's website - article number 18833483, titled 'Sun Down'.
>>
>> Researchers believe we are heading for an extended solar minimum is the bad news. I do not know enough about the subject to have an opinion, but the article is well written.
>
> If it's so, then we're in for a long period of time where DX will be
> found on the lower bands with infrequent, if any, openings beyond Es on
> 10m.  Reliable DX will require large arrays on 15 and 20m and power.
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Re: OT - Solar activity article

Jack Chomley
In reply to this post by Randy Cook
I am not so sure I really want to see a very active cycle :-)
With the explosive sales of HF gear over the last few years, and a big rise in activity etc, the bands will get swamped with signals IF we get a good cycle.
You will need every filter you can muster, to pull a readable signal out of the ensuing RF quagmire:-)
Be good for Elecraft's filter options sales!!

73,

Jack VK4JRC

Sent from my iPod Touch

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Re: OT - Solar activity article

N5GE
In reply to this post by Arie Kleingeld PA3A-2

That's the stuff Arie.  

Learn to dig the weak ones out, even at the peak.  It'll make you a better
operator in the troughs.

73,
Tom
Amateur Radio Operator N5GE


On Thu, 16 Jun 2011 19:56:55 +0200, Arie Kleingeld PA3A <[hidden email]> wrote:

{snip]
>
>I'll just see what happens and accept all propagation, good or bad.
>73
>Arie PA3A
>
[snip]

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Re: OT - Solar activity article

ab2tc
In reply to this post by Jack Chomley
I have to disagree on that one. 15 and 10m bands are hugely underutilized these days even when there are decent openings. I will take what I get but would certainly welcome higher sunspot activity with the better openings on the higher bands. So far the current cycle is a dud. There was some glimmer of hope earlier in the yeatr, but now it has leveled off again.

AB2TC - Knut

Jack Chomley wrote
I am not so sure I really want to see a very active cycle :-)
With the explosive sales of HF gear over the last few years, and a big rise in activity etc, the bands will get swamped with signals IF we get a good cycle.
You will need every filter you can muster, to pull a readable signal out of the ensuing RF quagmire:-)
Be good for Elecraft's filter options sales!!

73,

Jack VK4JRC
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Re: OT - Solar activity article

w1pns
In reply to this post by Arie Kleingeld PA3A-2
On Thu, 2011-06-16 at 19:56 +0200, Arie Kleingeld PA3A wrote:
> No article, no discussion on any reflector will bring any change in this
> solar cycle.


And for very good reason. The scientists involved were talking about
cycle 25, not this cycle. I attended the press briefing at which the
researchers outlined their observations and offered *a range* of
possible implications -- from merely a late onset of Cycle 25, as we saw
with Cycle 24, to a spotless 25. And at the moment, they were not in a
position to hazard a guess on where within that spectrum of outcomes the
sun would fall. They were saying: "Hey, folks, we're seeing things at
this stage of one solar cycle (24) that look decidedly different from
things we've seen at the same point in previous cycles, when the sun is
beginning to set the stage for its next cycle. If the trends we see
continue, here is a plausible range of possible outcomes."

So enjoy this cycle to the fullest. It may -- or may not -- be the last
one for awhile. ;-)

With best regards,

Pete

--
Peter N. Spotts -- W1PNS
http://www.w1pns.net 
Email: [hidden email] | Skype: pspotts
QCWA #34679 | SKCC #4853T | QRP-ARCI #4174
NEQRP #714 | NAQCC #2446 | GQRP #13202

"Amateur radio is a contact sport.
Get on the air and make a contact!"
       -- Lyle Amundson, K0LFV


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Re: OT - Solar activity article

Geoffrey Mackenzie-Kennedy
In reply to this post by Arie Kleingeld PA3A-2
Arie,

I well recall that many "experts" were predicting similar gloom in the mid
1950's and were proved wrong by the Grandmother of all solar cycles of our
time. Also IMHO our understanding of propagation vs solar activity is still
elementary.

73,
Geoff
GM4ESD


Arie Kleingeld PA3A wrote on June 16, 2011 at 6:56 PM:

> No article, no discussion on any reflector will bring any change in this
> solar cycle.
>
> I'll just see what happens and accept all propagation, good or bad.
>
>
> 73
> Arie PA3A


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Re: OT - Solar activity article

wayne burdick
Administrator
As any QRP operator can tell you, the meaning of "DX" changes from day  
to day, and accepting this fact lowers your blood pressure :)  Working  
a weak station is a worthy challenge wether they're across the state  
or two hops around the globe.

Wayne
N6KR

On Jun 17, 2011, at 2:24 PM, Geoffrey Mackenzie-Kennedy wrote:

> Arie,
>
> I well recall that many "experts" were predicting similar gloom in  
> the mid
> 1950's and were proved wrong by the Grandmother of all solar cycles  
> of our
> time. Also IMHO our understanding of propagation vs solar activity  
> is still
> elementary.
>
> 73,
> Geoff
> GM4ESD
>
>
> Arie Kleingeld PA3A wrote on June 16, 2011 at 6:56 PM:
>
>> No article, no discussion on any reflector will bring any change in  
>> this
>> solar cycle.
>>
>> I'll just see what happens and accept all propagation, good or bad.
>>
>>
>> 73
>> Arie PA3A
>
>
> ______________________________________________________________
> Elecraft mailing list
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Re: OT - Solar activity article

Geoffrey Mackenzie-Kennedy
Hi Wayne,

Absolutely!! During my last CW QSO with CA on 15m using my K2/100, he could
still copy me S4 with my Tx power wound down to 5 watts - and this was at
near midnight here when the band here was allegedly "dead".

Blood pressure is not a problem for me after 60+ years on the air, cross
fingers!

73,
Geoff
GM4ESD


Wayne Burdick wrote on June 17, 2011 at 10:33 PM:


> As any QRP operator can tell you, the meaning of "DX" changes from day
> to day, and accepting this fact lowers your blood pressure :)  Working
> a weak station is a worthy challenge wether they're across the state
> or two hops around the globe.
>
> Wayne
> N6KR




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Re: OT - Solar activity article

Brendan Minish
In reply to this post by wayne burdick
I have worked some fantastic DX during the bottom of the current cycle,
30M really shines as does 40m and 160/80m really come alive.
low activity is no show stopper, it's just that the fun is on different
bands.
a 1/4 wave vertical for 30m is possible for most and at greyline times
during periods of low solar activity out performs my log yagi (due to
better low angle takeoff angle)
Don't use low solar activity as an excuse to not operate ;-0 just stay
active and enjoy the hobby, after-all the colder winders will make you
feel less guilty about staying indoors..  

On Fri, 2011-06-17 at 14:33 -0700, Wayne Burdick wrote:
> As any QRP operator can tell you, the meaning of "DX" changes from day  
> to day, and accepting this fact lowers your blood pressure :)  Working  
> a weak station is a worthy challenge wether they're across the state  
> or two hops around the globe.
>
> Wayne
> N6KR

--
73
Brendan EI6IZ

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Re: OT - Solar activity article

Gary Gregory
All,

Last weekend in VK we had the 'shires' contest and on 15M I was delighted to
work a QRP operator in Illinois who said he was using 5W and a dipole at
25ft.

His signal report was a genuine 55....of course I was using my K-Line...:-)

Gary

On 18 June 2011 09:56, Brendan Minish <[hidden email]> wrote:

> I have worked some fantastic DX during the bottom of the current cycle,
> 30M really shines as does 40m and 160/80m really come alive.
> low activity is no show stopper, it's just that the fun is on different
> bands.
> a 1/4 wave vertical for 30m is possible for most and at greyline times
> during periods of low solar activity out performs my log yagi (due to
> better low angle takeoff angle)
> Don't use low solar activity as an excuse to not operate ;-0 just stay
> active and enjoy the hobby, after-all the colder winders will make you
> feel less guilty about staying indoors..
>
> On Fri, 2011-06-17 at 14:33 -0700, Wayne Burdick wrote:
> > As any QRP operator can tell you, the meaning of "DX" changes from day
> > to day, and accepting this fact lowers your blood pressure :)  Working
> > a weak station is a worthy challenge wether they're across the state
> > or two hops around the globe.
> >
> > Wayne
> > N6KR
>
> --
> 73
> Brendan EI6IZ
>
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>



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Re: OT - Solar activity article

Guy, K2AV
In reply to this post by Geoffrey Mackenzie-Kennedy
There are two kinds of "dead" bands:  1) the band is really dead and
it doesn't matter whether anyone is on or not.   2)  nobody is on the
band and it's open.    The contests prove how many times it's really
#2.    We have a Summer Stew Perry coming up tomorrow and we will see
what really goes on in the summer.

73, Guy.

On Fri, Jun 17, 2011 at 6:10 PM, Geoffrey Mackenzie-Kennedy
<[hidden email]> wrote:

> Hi Wayne,
>
> Absolutely!! During my last CW QSO with CA on 15m using my K2/100, he could
> still copy me S4 with my Tx power wound down to 5 watts - and this was at
> near midnight here when the band here was allegedly "dead".
>
> Blood pressure is not a problem for me after 60+ years on the air, cross
> fingers!
>
> 73,
> Geoff
> GM4ESD
>
>
> Wayne Burdick wrote on June 17, 2011 at 10:33 PM:
>
>
>> As any QRP operator can tell you, the meaning of "DX" changes from day
>> to day, and accepting this fact lowers your blood pressure :)  Working
>> a weak station is a worthy challenge wether they're across the state
>> or two hops around the globe.
>>
>> Wayne
>> N6KR
>
>
>
>
> ______________________________________________________________
> Elecraft mailing list
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>
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>
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