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OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

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Edward A. Dauer

OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8.

I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article.

Ted, KN1CBR

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stengrevics

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

These predictions are completely uncertain. Recent info presented by Tamitha Skov (space weather scientist) suggests the next cycle will not be delayed and will begin early 2019.

In a paper presented at Central States VHF, Jim Kennedy reviewed many studies & predictions and found that they differed by 115%.

In fact, nobody really knows.

John
WA1EAZ

> On Oct 9, 2018, at 1:37 PM, Dauer, Edward <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8.
>
> I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article.
>
> Ted, KN1CBR
>
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Edward A. Dauer

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

As I noted, I have no opinion on the matter.

An observation attributed to everyone from Niels Bohr to Yogi Berra: It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

Ted, KN1CBR

On 10/9/18, 11:45 AM, "John Stengrevics" <[hidden email]> wrote:

These predictions are completely uncertain. Recent info presented by Tamitha Skov (space weather scientist) suggests the next cycle will not be delayed and will begin early 2019.

In a paper presented at Central States VHF, Jim Kennedy reviewed many studies & predictions and found that they differed by 115%.

In fact, nobody really knows.

John
WA1EAZ

> On Oct 9, 2018, at 1:37 PM, Dauer, Edward <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8.
>
> I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article.
>
> Ted, KN1CBR
>
> ______________________________________________________________
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wayne burdick

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

Administrator

In reply to this post by stengrevics

Meanwhile, many people are working DX in all modes day and night...go figure :) My weapon of choice is a KX2, hand-held, running 10 watts to a 3-band, 4-foot-long whip. Despite the obvious compromises, I never fail to make some worldwide Qs on hiking trips -- though it is certainly easier when those band openings come along.

Wayne
N6KR

> On Oct 9, 2018, at 10:45 AM, John Stengrevics <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> These predictions are completely uncertain. Recent info presented by Tamitha Skov (space weather scientist) suggests the next cycle will not be delayed and will begin early 2019.
>
> In a paper presented at Central States VHF, Jim Kennedy reviewed many studies & predictions and found that they differed by 115%.
>
> In fact, nobody really knows.
>
> John
> WA1EAZ
>
>> On Oct 9, 2018, at 1:37 PM, Dauer, Edward <[hidden email]> wrote:
>>
>> For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8.
>>
>> I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article.
>>
>> Ted, KN1CBR

k6dgw

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

In reply to this post by stengrevics

Ummm ... "completely uncertain" is not true as is "nobody really
knows." A great deal of information and data on solar dynamics has been
collected and analyzed in recent years which shed a lot of light [no pun
intended] on the various solar cycles and processes, and a great deal
*is* known and understood, just not everything.

The probability of a reprise of the late 50's Cycle 19 for Cycle 25 is
known to be very low. The probability of a very weak Cycle 25 is much
higher. Meanwhile, as N6KR points out, my radio still works and I still
make QSO's, some with stations very far away.

I too think the article in CQ is very interesting, I read it twice.

73,

Fred ["Skip"] K6DGW
Sparks NV DM09dn
Washoe County

On 10/9/2018 10:45 AM, John Stengrevics wrote:
> These predictions are completely uncertain. Recent info presented by Tamitha Skov (space weather scientist) suggests the next cycle will not be delayed and will begin early 2019.
>
> In a paper presented at Central States VHF, Jim Kennedy reviewed many studies & predictions and found that they differed by 115%.
>
> In fact, nobody really knows.
>
> John
> WA1EAZ
>

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NK7Z

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

In reply to this post by Edward A. Dauer

Ted,
Thanks for sharing that info... Bad as it seems... Hopefully it turns
out to be not what happens...

73s and thanks,
Dave (NK7Z/NNR0DC)
https://www.nk7z.net
ARRL Technical Specialist
ARRL Volunteer Examiner
ARRL OOC for Oregon

On 10/9/18 10:37 AM, Dauer, Edward wrote:

> For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8.
>
> I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article.
>
> Ted, KN1CBR
>
> ______________________________________________________________
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>

stengrevics

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

That is precisely why I posted what I did. People take somebody’s forecast and accept it. Despite the progress made in understanding sunspot cycles, prediction is a very uncertain undertaking.

Take any prediction with a huge block of salt.

John
WA1EAZ

> On Oct 9, 2018, at 3:14 PM, Dave Cole (NK7Z) <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
> Ted,
> Thanks for sharing that info... Bad as it seems... Hopefully it turns out to be not what happens...
>
> 73s and thanks,
> Dave (NK7Z/NNR0DC)
> https://www.nk7z.net
> ARRL Technical Specialist
> ARRL Volunteer Examiner
> ARRL OOC for Oregon
>
> On 10/9/18 10:37 AM, Dauer, Edward wrote:
>> For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8.
>> I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article.
>> Ted, KN1CBR
>> ______________________________________________________________
>> Elecraft mailing list
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Josh Fiden

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

In reply to this post by stengrevics

If any of Jim Kennedy's (K6MIO/KH6) talks about solar predictions are available online, they are really fantastic. He's an authority on the subject.

73
Josh W6XU

Sent from my mobile device

KENT TRIMBLE

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

In reply to this post by Edward A. Dauer

One day while [Chicken Little] is walking an acorn falls from a tree,
and hits the top of her little head.

"My, oh, my, the sky is falling. I must run and tell the lion about it,"
- says Chicken Little and she begins to run.

She runs and runs and runs and runs.

73,

Kent K9ZTV

On 10/9/2018 12:37 PM, someone wrote:
> For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .”
>
>

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Drew AF2Z

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

In reply to this post by Edward A. Dauer

I'd pay more attention to predictions based upon theoretical
considerations. Those based upon historical data patterns, statistical
interpretation, curve fitting, etc are about as useful as stock market
or global climate predictions. Someone can always take a bunch of
historical data and come up with a clever scheme to accurately account
for past events, but when it comes to predicting the future it falls to
pieces.

I'll be doing CW in any case. That's my prediction.

73,
Drew
AF2Z

On 10/09/18 13:37, Dauer, Edward wrote:

David Gilbert

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

In reply to this post by Edward A. Dauer

I have very little doubt that the next sunspot cycle will be pretty
weak. The long term trend has been pretty obvious in general. However,
it seems erroneous that they would predict a delay in the start when the
first (albeit weak) sunspot of Cycle 25 (opposite polarity) has just
recently been spotted.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/12/it-appears-solar-cycle-25-has-begun-solar-cyle-24-one-of-the-shortest-and-weakest-ever/

http://www.stce.be/node/359

And I've seen no scientific analysis at all that says there won't be
some sort of maximum at all. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center
even expects a solar maximum roughly the same as for Cycle 24.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What%20Happened%20to%20Those%20Sunspots.pdf

Who knows what the actual story will be (I certainly don't), but I'm
going to place a CQ article fairly far down my list of credible sources.

73,
Dave AB7E

On 10/9/2018 10:37 AM, Dauer, Edward wrote:

Eric Swartz - WA6HHQ

Re: OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25

Administrator

Folks - Lets close the thread. We're well past the single topic posting limit in
one day.

73,
Eric
mod-erator
/elecraft.com/

On 10/9/2018 3:10 PM, David Gilbert wrote:

>
> I have very little doubt that the next sunspot cycle will be pretty weak. The
> long term trend has been pretty obvious in general. However, it seems
> erroneous that they would predict a delay in the start when the first (albeit
> weak) sunspot of Cycle 25 (opposite polarity) has just recently been spotted.
>
> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/12/it-appears-solar-cycle-25-has-begun-solar-cyle-24-one-of-the-shortest-and-weakest-ever/
>
>
> http://www.stce.be/node/359